Raleigh – New quarterly numbers this morning show that Senator Tillis has the lowest approval rating of any U.S. Senator and that “things aren’t getting better” for Tillis. Tillis is one of “the most vulnerable Republican Senators” who “are not improving their standing in their home states ahead of a tough 2020 election cycle, while the field of potential Democratic challengers took shape and began to flex its muscle.”
Tillis’ 33% approval rating is the lowest of any U.S. Senator, and his standing with voters dropped 3 points since rankings released in July. The new numbers come on the heels of three nonpartisan election analysts moving the race in Democrats’ direction, noting that Tillis is “sweating” his primary with Garland Tucker and has an “image problem” and that “voters of all ideological stripes simply don’t trust Tillis.” Tillis also reported a disappointing fundraising quarter where his fundraising dropped 37% from the previous quarter amid new signs that he’s struggling to survive his primary.
Previous Morning Consult analyses found that Tillis is being dragged down by an unpopular president he’s lashed himself to in order to get through his GOP primary and that Tillis has a “trust problem” with Republican voters after he “loses credibility with North Carolina Republicans.” Tillis’ credibility problem with voters of all ideological stripes isn’t going away because he’s a weak politician who voters understand looks out for his reelection chances before what’s best for the state.
Morning Consult: Things Aren’t Getting Better for 2020’s Most Vulnerable Senate Republicans
By Eli Yokley
October 17, 2019
- The most vulnerable Republican senators are not improving their standing in their home states ahead of a tough 2020 election cycle, while the field of potential Democratic challengers took shape and began to flex its muscle.
- Republicans representing Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, Maine and Iowa all saw their net approval — the share of voters who approve of a senator’s job performance minus the share who disapprove — decline between the second and third quarters of 2019.
- Ernst is not the only Republican up for re-election next year with a home-state approval below 40 percent: Among the vulnerable incumbents, Martha McSally of Arizona, Cory Gardner of Colorado and Thom Tillis of North Carolina are all below that threshold following a quarter where each saw little movement.
- The latest figures come as Democrats in Washington have touted the third-quarter fundraising success of the party’s candidates.
- “You see it not just in the Senate candidates hitting their mark and doing really well in fundraising and building the grassroots, but you also see it in how shaky these incumbents are,” [said Democratic strategist Martha McKenna]
- The latest rankings show Trump continues to be a drag on Republican incumbents. In Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina and Texas, Trump’s net approval with registered voters is worse than that of the incumbent Republican, by double digits in several cases.